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Modelling Pipe Failures in Water Distribution Systems: Accounting for Harmful Repairs and a Time-dependent Covariate
Volume 10, Number 1, January 2014 - Paper 5 - pp. 41-52
GÉNIA BABYKINA1,2, and VINCENT COUALLIER21 CEMAGREF, Bordeaux regional Center, Hydraulics and Civil Engineering Research Unit, F-33612 Cestas, FRANCE
2 IMB, UMR CNRS 5251, Université de Bordeaux, F-33076, Bordeaux, FRANCE
(Received on October 22, 2012, revised on May 29, and June 02, 2013)
The paper deals with statistical analysis of repeated pipe failures in Water Distribution Systems, affected by a time-dependent factor. Several systems observed over a given time period are considered. A particular parametric model, formulated in the counting process framework, is employed. This model accounts for system aging, harmful repairs and covariates. Practical issues in maximum likelihood parameter estimations in the presence of a calendar time-dependent covariate are discussed. The proposed methodology is applied to a real dataset. The results clearly show an improvement of estimates quality when a calendar time-dependent covariate is integrated to the model.
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