Systematic Quantification of the Prior Risk Assurance of a New System Using Bayesian Evidence Analysis
Volume 9, Number 6, November 2013 - Paper 10 - pp. 689-699
WILLIAM E. VESELYNASA Headquarters, Washington, DC 20545, U.S.A.
(Received on February 05, 2013, revised on March 04, and April 12, 2013)
The total risk assurance of a new system such as a spacecraft is based on initial reviews, testing, and operational experience. The initial reviews include inspections, audits, and qualitative and quantitative analyses. The risk assurance provided by the initial reviews can be termed the prior risk assurance. The information provided by the initial reviews can be qualitative or quantitative. Bayesian evidence analysis is shown to be capable of systematically translating the diverse information to a common scale to systematically quantify the prior risk assurance provided. Evidence analysis principles and probability rules are used in this translation. The quantified prior risk assurance that is obtained can be compared to numerical criteria and can then be updated with testing and operational data to obtain the updated system reliability estimate. Bayesian evidence analysis has a strong background and provides a unique capability of quantifying individual sources of risk assurance and the total risk assurance provided. The particular methodology presented here is believed to be new.
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