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Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Model based on Local Comparison and Mean Circular Tube

Volume 15, Number 6, June 2019, pp. 1672-1683
DOI: 10.23940/ijpe.19.06.p18.16721683

Xuezong Bai, Zongwen An, Yunfeng Hou, and Jianxiong Gao

School of Mechanical and Electronical Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, 730050, China

(Submitted on March 26, 2019; Revised on April 23, 2019; Accepted on June 15, 2019)

Abstract:

It is significant to forecast the short-term wind speed for the safety of wind turbine blades and the optimization of power grid dispatching. Firstly, the local comparison method is established to forecast the mean wind speed. Secondly, the universal generating function (UGF) is used to express the wind speed as a multi-state random variable, state probability allocation and the state probability matrix are used to obtain the risk state probability, and equal dimension filling is used to update the information. Then, the maximum wind speed is calculated based on the mean wind speed and risk state probability. Thirdly, local comparison is used for error forecasting, and the forecasting errors are used to correct the forecasting wind speeds. Finally, the mean circular tube is constructed, and the mean wind speed, maximum wind speed, risk state probability, and average relative error are displayed in the combined mean circular tube together.

 

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