A Dynamic Model for Winning Probability Estimation in a Long-Lasting Campaign

Gao Kaiye,Yan Xiangbin,Peng Rui,Qiu Hui,Wu Langtao

Table 4 Winning probabilities for Case 2 on Kth day

Day A win B win Draw Uncertain 1 0.3 0.02 0.03 0.65 2 0.18 0.04 0.03 0.4 3 0.105 0.035 0.0225 0.2375 4 0.06 0.025 0.015 0.1375 5 0.0338 0.0163 0.0094 0.0781 6 0.0187 0.01 0.0056 0.0437 7 0.0103 0.0059 0.0033 0.0242 8 0.0056 0.0034 0.0019 0.0133 9 0.003 0.002 0.0011 0.0072 10 0.0016 0.0011 0.0006 0.0039 11 0.0009 0.0006 0.0003 0.0021 12 0.0005 0.0003 0.0002 0.0011 13 0.000025 0.000018 0.000001 0.0006 14 0.00001 0.000009 0.000005 0.0003 15 0.000007 0.000005 0.000003 0.0002 16 0.000004 0.000003 0.000002 0.0001 17 0.000002 0.000001 0.0000008 0.000005